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Early in 2019, MSCI announced that mid cap stocks and a number of Chi Next (a Nasdaq-style trading board) stocks) would be added and the inclusion factor raised to 20% at its November 2019 semi-annual review.It would be hard to exaggerate the importance of this latest development, which will have added 421 Chinese stocks to an 830-stock emerging markets index in a span of 18 months.We estimate this will give China’s domestic stocks a weighting of 3% to 4% of the MSCI EM index by the end of this year, which is expected to rise to more than 15% over time as China continues to open.Given our view of their quality, and of the structural growth underlying many of these newly available stocks, we believe it makes sense to gain exposure early rather than waiting for the index to catch up over time.
While inclusion was a watershed moment, MSCI’s plan was a gradual one, starting with large cap stocks and an inclusion factor of only 5% (full inclusion, enjoyed by most countries’ markets, is 100%).But it adds that weak growth and low revenues however make progress difficult.Public debt is projected to increase by an average of 15 percentage points of GDP between 20, for the region as a whole.After declining by more than 3% in 2009, real output for the region as a whole isprojected to post only marginal gains in 2010 - an average of about 1%.The IMF says: "Tourism appears to have turned the corner, yet headwinds from weak labour markets in advanced economies constrain tourism growth prospects." It cautions that the key challenge lies in consolidating public finances - effectively cutting spending and debt - while strengthening competitiveness.
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During the first half of 2010, tourist arrivals in the Caribbean increased by an average of 3½ percent compared with the same period last year. Smaller islands in the region have experienced a sharper and more prolongeddecline in tourist arrivals than some of the larger islands.